syrian-isreaeli-peace-for-dummiesHelena Cobban has a good post summarizing the history of Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations. She doesn’t mention the indirect negotiations mediated with Abe Suliman and Alon Liel, but otherwise it looks pretty complete.

This summary requires a bit of discussion. In case you haven’t noticed, it’s been almost two decades now since we have sat down at the table and started talking about peace. And guess what, there was almost never anything unbridgeable in the positions, certainty not after Oslo in 93, when the Syrians started viewing themselves as free to sign their own bi-lateral agreement with Israel, separate from the Palestinians.

So… why don’t we have peace with Syria? That’s because I and the rest of the citizens of Israel are a bunch of certified DUMMIES. A herd of catatonic meat-eating sheep. In almost all the negotiations with Syria, negotiations broke down due to political expediency calculations from our joker-of-a-leader de-jour. The only one who wasn’t a joker, and was dead serious—was also seriously dead, literally, because of that. I’m talking about Yitzhak Rabin of course.

How does it happen that in our famed “Western Democracy” the people don’t DEMAND a peace that is beyond any doubt achievable and moreover how come this society doesn’t hold its leaders accountable for squandering a chance after chance, to put another stake in the heart of this monster called enmity-and-war? What are the chances that we would have been spared the Second Lebanon War if such a peace deal was obtained before? In my opinion, a 100% sure case no such war would have happened, but try to tell an Israeli about it, and you’ll get a blank stare… hey, this is all programming on his TV, what say does he have about it? Peace with Syria is… you know… a matter for the experts, the Uzi Arads and the Amos Yadlins, there are all sorts of considerations for and against, and who knows whether the Muslim Brotherhood will not take over tomorrow? Better leave this thing to the Mossad and army intelligence to figure out. Peace with Syria is not something for the populace to have an opinion about, it’s a military thing, so let go with the tough questions. Besides, who said the war with Lebanon was all bad? We got to rebuild the army as a result of that, change some doctrines and test new weapons, and to be totally honest, the lengthy process of obliterating Lebanon over 30 days, had its sweet unforgettable moments. OK, so we had to sit in shelters and soldiers and civilians died. Yeah it’s not nice, but that’s the way it is here, and don’t fool yourself it can ever be different!

Thus, nearly a generation has passed, and nothing has changed. The Israeli and Syrian armies are still sitting across the border in the Golan, each in their rusting tanks, as a relic from the cold war, in a world that has moved on.

Israel is always happy to appoint investigative committees to check the performance of the state and its violence inflicting branches before and during wars. But what about an investigation into missing an opportunity for peace? Whom would it find guilty, and who would be considered a good servant of the people? The table below provides some clues.

Year/venue Israeli PM Syrian President Why did it fail?
1991, Madrid Peace Conf Shamir Assad Senior Syria was committed to comprehensive peace. Israel was stalling.
1994, US Rabin Assad Senior Rabin has committed to withdrawing to 67 lines. Was assassinated following this and Oslo.
1996, US (Wye) Peres Assad Senior Peres terminated negotiations after Hamas attacks and in order to fight Hizballah, to get popularity for elections against Bibi.
1996, Damascus Bibi Assad Senior Bibi sent Ron Lauder to Assad and offered him something unknown. This then gets squashed when Sharon wings Bibi from the right and threatens his position as a PM.
1999, US (Wye) Barak Assad Senior This is the only case where there is some uncertainty of where the blame goes. The proceedings were never made public. It is claimed that the reason for failure was Syrian demand for access to the sea of Galilee
2006-2008, Turkey Olmert Assad Junior Progress was made on and off on back channels and then through indirect negotiations with Turkish mediation. Ultimately the sides got very close to agreement, and then Olmert lunched the Gaza war.

 

Examining the table above, we see that in all cases, except when Barak was negotiating (he gets the benefit of a doubt), in all those cases, Israel fumbled it, either cynically and deliberately as in the Peres and Olmert cases, or due to the volatility of the country, as in Rabin’s assassination case.

We Israelis like to pride ourselves on our democracy. Democracy is a system of governance where the people decide about their destiny. When exactly in the last two decades have the people been able to control their destiny with respect to peace with Syria? It could be argued that the passivity in this policy matter is reminiscent of American-Cuban relationship, which could have been reformed already if it was a priority for America. However, it would be foolish to compare the balance of powers between Israel and Syria to that of America and Cuba. Staying in a state of war with Syria has its consequences and, again, the war in 2006 was a reminder for the costs of a status-quo.

Now compare for a second the ability of Israel to articulate, gain support for, and execute policy to that of Syria—a dictatorship. The Syrians have been saying the exact same things since 1994. Whenever we drop the ball and go get it again, they stay where they are, like a rock. Their policy towards Israel is popular with the people (Assad got the highest support rating in a recent poll comparing the popularity of Arab leaders).

I am of course not in support of dictatorship for Israel, not even if the dictator is a benevolent one with an attractive spouse and an iPod, but one can only say: damn! What would it take to get some accountability and continuity in our governance?!

I’m looking forward to Bibi’s turn at extending the list of failures. Maybe a surprise? I dare not be optimistic.